Wie wird der Iran die Mullahs los? Mit Natalie Amiri und Bijan Djir-Sarai

00:00:02:

00:00:06: Ayatollah Hameine is dead.

00:00:12: All over

00:00:12: Iran the voices of Iranian people could be heard cheering and celebrating in streets when his death was announced.

00:00:21: We have

00:00:22: every

00:00:22: right, every legitimate

00:00:24: right

00:00:24: to defend ourselves.

00:00:27: What's United

00:00:28: States

00:00:28: doing?

00:00:29: Is an act of aggression.

00:00:30: The regime in Iran is

00:00:32: utterly abhorrent.

00:00:35: They have murdered

00:00:35: thousands of their own people,

00:00:38: brutally crushed dissent and sought to destabilize the

00:00:42: region.".

00:00:43: This weekend the world has changed.

00:00:45: America and

00:00:46: Israel

00:00:47: have attacked

00:00:49: Iran together,

00:00:50: not just

00:00:51: any missile

00:00:53: positions.

00:00:53: One

00:00:53: of the most brutal powers in the

00:00:55: world.

00:00:56: For more than four

00:00:58: decades Ali Khamenei

00:01:01: is ruling.

00:01:01: And

00:01:03: now he's dead!

00:01:04: The Middle East is in flames.

00:01:07: Iran reacts with anger and rockets... ...and the world wonders what will happen next?

00:01:13: Today we try to find answers as difficult as possible,... ...and talk about two people who know Iran much better then us both.

00:01:22: Yes, and they should also tell us whether a world war is just about to take place or if the whole thing can still be

00:01:30: suppressed.

00:01:32: On the one hand we have Natalie Amiri with us who led the Tehran studio for five years as an ARD journalist .

00:01:42: She was simply arrested several times in January six weeks before the attack on Khamenei said he will either kill him in Iran.

00:01:55: In addition, we are

00:01:57: building the FTP politician Bijan Jisaray in Tehran, which was born in other parts of the world.

00:02:02: He came to West Germany with his young years and he always criticized Iran's politics in recent years as a dangerous naïve.

00:02:11: And we have to take a closer look at the water road, which

00:02:15: suddenly stands again in the middle of world politics.

00:02:21: Namely the street from Hormuz.

00:02:23: Thirty-nine kilometers wide it is on the tightest place and can drive daily by tank

00:02:29: with one

00:02:30: fifth of global oil

00:02:35: consumption.

00:02:40: Of course they get our appreciation here too.

00:03:02: Has Donald Trump kept this attack right?

00:03:04: Maybe he's one of the worst rulers.

00:03:08: We don't want to see wars, I think it's so horrible and unnecessary.

00:03:12: So costly in terms of lives and money, that order.

00:03:15: And this is of course a risk-rich attack, especially now with attacks on Iran's three American U.S.

00:03:42: soldiers who

00:03:44: have lost their lives and thus the debate will naturally end up in the US before the midterms.

00:03:57: but back to Urkhan, one of the most brutal powers in the world was exiled by American jets and their bombs.

00:04:05: Ali Khamenei has been in his own domicile with relatives for more than four decades.

00:04:14: And that's why this window is now a bit open to freedom at least.

00:04:19: And now we are standing in

00:04:22: front

00:04:23: of the difficult situation.

00:04:25: Can one be happy about the death of a person?

00:04:28: Many Iranians do it, there is no reliable statistics from the country but pictures here in Berlin were also on Kudam Exilirana who, according to hoops, drove through the streets, swung flags, messages from Iran i.e.

00:04:46: people's youth dance.

00:04:47: The action was carried out by months intensively prepared by the CIA.

00:04:53: And you looked closely at where the leader of religion is located, who has been terrorizing the country for forty years now .

00:05:02: Now

00:05:02: it's a question , of course, that is justified.

00:05:05: The Israelis and Americans say there was an immediate threat through Iran.

00:05:10: And truth is also one Helene.

00:05:13: let us briefly discuss this state reason.

00:05:17: Iran is the destruction of Israel as a target, as a state doctrine.

00:05:22: And then you actually have to say in Germany where we are again about the state resources and the security of Israel to guarantee that it has given these attacks.

00:05:34: well one of the worst terror rulers in the world is no longer alive.

00:05:38: Yes, there was no democratic legitimation for this regime in Iran but naturally it's an attack from outside and we have also experienced that the regime chain often doesn't work well with me.

00:05:50: The joy about death and the chance for the Iranians, even if they bring discussion to light.

00:05:56: So, maybe you have to distinguish the legal and political levels in order to sort things out a little bit.

00:06:01: So there is also far-reaching unity.

00:06:02: Is that not agreeable with the international law?

00:06:07: What did the Americans and Israelis do?

00:06:09: You can now talk about it.

00:06:10: So self-defense law implements an immediate attack.

00:06:15: You said that the threats against Israel alone are not enough.

00:06:23: There must be specific preparations, but in case of an atomic bomb it is seen as a little bit bigger.

00:06:31: So if you have an atomic bombing in your stomach or already ready for use then you don't need to wait until they are thrown away so that they can defend themselves against them.

00:06:45: The UN Security Council is not doing anything anymore because Russia is blocking everything.

00:06:50: So in this case, of course, the international law is always an important measure but certainly for the political assessment.

00:06:57: it's bitter to say that for me as a national rightist it isn't the only step.

00:07:02: So Michael, politically.

00:07:03: Yes and politically it is like Chancellor Merz, Emmanuel Macron and Kirsten Dahmer have also formulated with you dominates.

00:07:10: The joy is almost already over the end of this regime.

00:07:15: By the way, it was also in former Chancellor Peter Altmaier who clearly expressed himself there.

00:07:20: In the end a better future for Iranians and Iranians can only be given without the Mullahs' terror regime.

00:07:27: And that is the dominant threat also to the members of the federal government, including Marolf Mütze, who could never be called a pacifist as well before.

00:07:37: But the three most important European countries and governments have made it clear we condemn the Iranian attacks on states in the region –

00:07:46: i.e.,

00:07:46: the reaction of Iran on all the Middle East and rockets on military bases towards Oman, towards Bahrain, towards the United States Arab Emirates.

00:07:56: And actually not the original attack of Israelis and Americans shows, on the one hand that you need the American and Friedrich Merz flies to the US on Tuesdays , but the relief Helene is noticeable .

00:08:07: The political relief may now be one of the largest insurgents in the region with a new regime.

00:08:18: Yes and politically even the Greens who are sure as hüters of the right of the country.

00:08:24: I would like to present, as my party members say it is a bitter reality that the world community did not find an answer how people in Iran could have been protected from the terrible massacres of the regime.

00:08:34: So they themselves claim that the right to power has come to an end here and now.

00:08:41: there's one chance but this isn't more than just another opportunity.

00:08:45: let us hear how Donald Trump expressed himself.

00:08:49: I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment, and take back your country.

00:09:00: America is with you!

00:09:02: Thank you.

00:09:04: We know that we have a regime here, which has not been ready to go into peace until now.

00:09:19: Our interest is to ensure the security of Israel and our interest in this situation is also to ensure that we do not continue to be threatened by a nuclear weapon in Iran or through this missile program.

00:10:10: The

00:10:15: information flow from Iran has been difficult for a long time, and now it's even more difficult.

00:10:21: The Internet is blocked all the time between people who can send messages.

00:10:28: Nevertheless, Iranians living in Germany are in contact

00:10:32: with their

00:10:33: relatives or friends on site.

00:10:36: And we could talk to two of them today.

00:10:38: One is Nathalie Amiri The long time, namely for five years until the year of twenty-two, led by the ARD studio in Tehran and wrote a letter.

00:10:47: That means that it is close to Oscomplex.

00:10:50: And there she writes – the whole region can move towards Frieden or leave everything behind with one false claim.

00:11:00: Is this one thing now?

00:11:01: Or the other?

00:11:03: Michael spoke

00:11:05: to her.

00:11:05: Good day Mrs Amirin!

00:11:07: Good day.

00:11:07: What

00:11:09: are your feelings after this turbulent weekend?

00:11:11: What is it that you're most

00:11:13: concerned about right now?

00:11:14: Well, I just had five minutes of time for me to see the celebrating Iranians and Iranians abroad.

00:11:21: There's around eight million ex-Iranians who came on the streets spontaneously yesterday after the announcement that Ayatollah Khamenei was killed at the attack.

00:11:37: They came to the street spontaneously and there is a song that says, I'm going to Tehran.

00:11:43: And very many people have this longing for a free Iran and are so happy right at the moment or it was ... I would say just one short moment of joy, of relief.

00:11:57: who do enough that these tips were hit by the system?

00:12:01: but I have little contact with Iran because the Internet was completely blocked again.

00:12:13: But very few messages that I get are also shared by fear and concern, how

00:12:18: is it going on?

00:12:19: I remember almost two hundred and fifty thousand people who were in Munich at the street and somehow felt like the euphoria of optimism, the chance to catch up with the exiles Iranians A lot, a lot more than the real chances of opposition that are in the country.

00:12:37: At least you can live out your joy for me!

00:12:39: The question is how many rockets do they still have?

00:12:43: And how long could this fight last and how much will it be destabilized at the end so that really the regime collapses?

00:12:51: what I don't see yet.

00:12:54: There's enough faith... Basij Milizen and revolutionists who are just worried that the people won't get on their way.

00:13:03: Of course, they still live within an apparatus which is ready to kill them.

00:13:11: That means this short moment of breathing is over

00:13:20: again I think.

00:13:25: And what now?

00:13:28: I think, to be honest with you that the regime cannot evaluate how stable it

00:13:41: is at any moment.

00:13:45: It's not a monolithic power bloc, it is a rivaling group that has fought for a long time and also fought for the consequences.

00:14:00: We didn't get this from him.

00:14:02: That was an inner Iranian power struggle but there isn't one strong group who would take over the consequences now so it can be totally invisible.

00:14:16: The question is, who will be eliminated from the regime?

00:14:23: And what does this influence on the stability and motivation of the power apparatus?

00:14:29: How do we react to the Revolutionary Guard if one after another falls?

00:14:33: How are the Basij Militsen reacting?

00:14:36: that may then see.

00:14:37: oh it can become close.

00:14:38: We'd rather put ourselves on the side of the people.

00:14:42: When will the people in this state get on the streets?

00:14:47: Is there a mobilization?

00:14:49: At present, President Trump and also Mr.

00:14:53: Pahlawi have called us to stay in their houses and wait for them.

00:15:01: The question is when they are going up on the street.

00:15:05: And then... And will the people then go?

00:15:08: If they know what this regime is capable of doing, how we saw it on January the eighth and ninth.

00:15:15: Where thousands were simply set up on the street.

00:15:19: Just another question about that topic which you mentioned why this Iranian state apparatus has shown such a surface-covered reaction and just also attacked Muslim neighboring countries?

00:15:32: What's behind there?

00:15:33: To

00:15:33: be honest my thought was like How stupid, how can you still joke with the state that in recent weeks one or more or less wanted to get rid of it?

00:15:50: To attack the country.

00:15:54: The Arab states will not forgive them.

00:15:56: and if we look at ourselves in this region Iran is no Arab state.

00:16:02: It was actually never a friendly state in the region.

00:16:06: Of course, now we have the image of an area fire.

00:16:10: But I don't see such a long-term fire that goes into total escalation because basically it looks like one against everyone or all against each other and Iran is simply missing.

00:16:27: You

00:16:27: know the Iranian people better than all of us here.

00:16:31: How big is the will that women have shown a few years ago, to use this historic chance at the end as soon as they are free from the streets?

00:16:42: What do

00:16:43: you think about it?

00:16:44: In days before these attacks students and students go back to universities.

00:16:50: They went to the campus and protested.

00:16:55: And that was so short after the massacre!

00:16:58: I have never experienced this before, when a force is re-entered again... ...and the willingness of people who are dying on the streets... ...to risk everything in this country... ...in order for the regime to raise its voice against them.

00:17:18: They have enormous power and power.

00:17:21: And they are, I think too much in proportion... ...and this gap between the regime and the population is so huge that it's impossible to overcome.

00:17:32: That I believe needs a massive change of art,...

00:17:35: ...that the people

00:17:37: accept new constructs

00:17:39: from

00:17:40: these power devices.

00:17:44: I can't imagine there would be a larijani for example.... The

00:17:51: Secretary of the National Security Council, Iran, for those who don't know him.

00:17:55: Exactly!

00:17:56: Or if you look at this council, which is supposed to bridge over the transition period until a new revolutionary leader according to the constitution of eighty-eight circles, the so called expert council will be elected?

00:18:10: I don't see that.

00:18:13: It's not going to happen this way either, if there is no further weakness in the system.

00:18:19: In America they are talking about their first dead soldiers.

00:18:24: Trump can't do much with many dead... this war, so if the number should rise for such a long time because he also passed on in Congress has done that and the attack has been carried out.

00:18:38: And even the midterms are standing there briefly.

00:18:41: That means his own promise.

00:18:42: we pull us out of the region.

00:18:43: We pull ourselves from wars.

00:18:45: There is no more dead soldiers anymore.

00:18:46: This was his biggest promise.

00:18:48: This has just been broken.

00:18:51: That means the victim's number must not be too large, otherwise he will pull himself out and finally say that we have hacked down the head of the snake.

00:19:01: We now have a new wheel here which is going to get better and explain how it works for him at some point in time as a great victory.

00:19:08: In the end this regime will somehow enter into a deal because there are no ideologically strong hamlets left.

00:19:16: yet The descendants know that they have to move more agile.

00:19:22: Otherwise, it will happen to them the same way.

00:19:25: Many things are still open but

00:19:26: also the window of freedom for people in Iran who have experienced an incredible oppression since decades.

00:19:32: That was Natalie Amir.

00:19:34: Thank you very much for your assessment on this day and a good start into

00:19:37: this week!

00:19:43: Nathalie Amiri asks a few questions openly, because who is now also in the opposition?

00:19:48: When can people go on the streets?

00:19:51: All of this is still open.

00:19:54: But that's really an opportunity!

00:19:55: One of the Iranian roots was born in Tehran in the year and then as very young man came to Germany when his father wanted him to protect him from the terror regime.

00:20:07: He came down to Grevenbruch and called it Bijan Jezarei.

00:20:10: Until recently, he was a general of the FTP, but Iran has always been his heart's theme.

00:20:17: And he is much more optimistic and clearer about what the chance for the Iranian opposition will be in exile.

00:20:27: Good day, hello Bishan!

00:20:28: Dear

00:20:29: Bishan, as

00:20:30: a person with Iranian roots what are the feelings that drive you to this weekend?

00:20:37: Is it freedom or fear of an ever-ending escalation in the Middle East?

00:20:43: To

00:20:43: be honest I'm looking forward for hope.

00:20:48: I look forward to people living in Iran because I am very far away and I haven't been in Iran for ages but I really look forward want to get rid of the Islamic Republic.

00:21:01: And last week, we clearly showed that they will not be able to do it alone but need support from abroad and they have wished for this help.

00:21:10: and now there is a way out.

00:21:13: because of the perspective of people.

00:21:15: you can see some images or reactions from Iran which make people happy that certain heads are switched off by

00:21:23: these

00:21:24: systems.

00:21:26: Now

00:21:27: the religious leader has been murdered and turned off.

00:21:30: Nevertheless, there is already news about this successor council that was installed.

00:21:38: who doesn't want any other Iranian ideologically.

00:21:40: How big is really a chance to get an opportunity not only for a liberal democracy but also for a more free Iranian constitution?

00:21:48: The

00:21:51: chance is there, but not with this system.

00:21:53: And that's what the people in Iran know as well.

00:21:56: A reform of Islamic Republic isn't possible anymore.

00:21:58: You have believed it for a long time too But this reform won't be possible and will no longer exist Because the heads who come now are basically going to continue this system.

00:22:09: So there aren't any reform movements within the Islamic republic.

00:22:15: All those who form these leadership attacks right now and also the gremians trying

00:22:20: to

00:22:22: keep this system stable, they don't want any change.

00:22:25: They won't change the essential pillars of the Islamic Republic.

00:22:28: That's why the clear demand for people is a life in freedom and democracy – you shouldn't forget that it's the big difference by the way from Iran back then with the Arab Spring.

00:22:40: The people in Iran want a democratic Western approach And they are leaning very clearly on the Islamic Republic.

00:22:48: They don't want to be ruled by Islamists anymore, because of that you had enough in recent years and decades.

00:22:55: You have enough experience with these people.

00:22:58: That's why it is the creation of the Islamic republic into a system, i.e.

00:23:02: democracy – the highest wish or the greatest wish for mankind in Iran!

00:23:06: You know the son of the Chas, Reser Palabi.

00:23:10: He was with him in talks last week again and again.

00:23:12: He has announced that he is ready to lead a transition government and make reforms and new elections possible.

00:23:21: How big are the chances this man

00:23:26: could play now?

00:23:27: So it's very clear... This guy is the face of revolution.

00:23:31: as I always say This is what the majority of people in Iran want.

00:23:36: The people who were on the street, who were shot or arrested and followed are always calling their names.

00:23:46: So it's not really possible.

00:23:48: The majority wants Mr.

00:23:51: Pahlavi as the figure that basically prepares them for a democracy.

00:24:03: I am personally convinced that Mr.

00:24:07: Pahlawi is able to fulfill this task with life as well.

00:24:11: We are not allowed to underestimate one thing, the Islamic Republic isn't over yet They will do everything for it in the next weeks and days.

00:24:22: First of all, to simulate stability but also stabilizing the system afterwards.

00:24:29: Because the Islamic Republic is prepared for this situation.

00:24:34: They have basically prepared themselves for decades and they have set up such a system that in case religious leaders are switched off it will continue to work.

00:24:47: And as I said, there is still the revolution in Iran.

00:24:49: There are also armed units.

00:24:51: So you can't underestimate that.

00:24:54: yet it's not like they're done.

00:24:56: but it isn't just how many smart Eastern experts explain to us in Germany that we absolutely don't know what comes after this.

00:25:04: The Iranian should have a chance of becoming a democratic country and if Iran actually becomes a free country or a democratic land then it will be a game changer for all regions.

00:25:15: This chance should be used.

00:25:17: Then let me ask you a question at the end.

00:25:20: as an former General Secretary of the FDP, a right-wing party that has also seen the international law as a foundation for the cooperation between nations What have the Americans and Israelis done there now?

00:25:33: How do you view politics as a right wing politician on this likely national law book?

00:25:38: Of

00:25:39: course I am also an FTP politician so freedom is important to me.

00:25:43: In this situation, we should not lead a international discussion.

00:25:48: The Mullahs are criminals!

00:25:49: They have never been interested in the right of the people.

00:25:52: They have supported terror organizations all over the world, financed and built up.

00:25:58: They threatened Israel, they threatened free world.

00:26:01: For decades, they have ensured an escalating human rights violation.

00:26:05: In today's situation, taking on a international debate is wrong from my point of view but one must now... on the right side of history, namely on the people's side in Iran and on the freedom movement.

00:26:19: Thank you very much for your family in Iran.

00:26:23: Thank

00:26:24: You very much!

00:26:26: For Iran it could be a chance to finally live in freedom.

00:26:31: For the world economy, this situation is difficult.

00:26:35: We will react to DAX today and in a few hours we will find out that there are concerns about the economic world, which now puts the whole world's economy

00:26:47: at risk.

00:26:47: The importance of Hormuz Street for the global market is hardly to be underestimated.

00:26:51: Only for Indians, the eighty percent of their oil import is only about this street.

00:26:58: Because they get their oil and gas from the cleaners who are all through these small sea lengths that are only thirty-five kilometers wide.

00:27:08: The Iranian military have blocked this road.

00:27:12: The container ships lie there now.

00:27:15: That could bring the oil price massively to turbulence.

00:27:18: By the way, on the last day of trading before the attack, the brand oil sorts were noted at around US dollars per barrel.

00:27:24: Now you calculate with... three-digit donut numbers up to one hundred and thirty dollars.

00:27:29: That is of course a real shock for an ever still fossil fuel economy, and many are already thinking that the Arab oil embargo in the seventies might change as well because back then cars were empty in Germany because you wanted to save oil and gasoline.

00:27:43: so let your car stand.

00:27:45: it could be expensive next week.

00:27:47: The

00:27:48: cancer that has just returned from China is breaking up on Tuesday after Washington to talk with Donald Trump.

00:27:56: Actually, the number was already quite full of topics which should be addressed there.

00:28:01: Of course all of them were about the plague question but also the relationship between China will now probably go around the situation in the near East.

00:28:11: for Friedrich Merz A chance to say that he speaks in this important week with the most powerful man of the world.

00:28:19: And our colleague Sarah Sievert is there and will report us here from the talk at the Oval Office.

00:28:26: Michael, we hardly think anything else today than at the Lager im Nahen Osten but still there's something on Sunday!

00:28:39: The life goes on here in Germany, and the good news will also be given back to us at such times.

00:28:44: Today we have one for you dear viewers and listeners because there is something good about Austria too.

00:28:47: during these dramatic times The authorities are going to demand shrink-flation on the spot.

00:28:55: We have already talked about it here, sales packages for example from my favorite chips or salt steams or Haribo or whatever remain equally large but much less inside and I have to pay the same then.

00:29:06: that is quite annoying for consumers And this must be recognized in Austria now.

00:29:12: Yes, they really

00:29:13: take the Austrian market through hard.

00:29:16: Money fines up to € Fifteen thousand.

00:29:18: It won't be worth it to fill in ten grams of chips less into the packages.

00:29:23: And for a good

00:29:25: end, dear Helene, the consumer always looks at that.

00:29:30: The people think we're all crazy and have no idea what's going on.

00:29:33: In fact, let us check this out and then rather take the other products.

00:29:37: Take care of the air.

00:29:39: Consumers

00:29:44: are smarter than some because they're in this

00:29:47: central concert.

00:29:48: See you on Tuesday, we look forward to seeing each other now.

00:29:53: Bye!